The economic predictions of many commentators who study International Finance are for an impending descent into  a Global Perma Slump.  Slumps can be international, regional, or confined to one economic sector and these are more manageable with the cure or reversal within the gift of a single affected Government; but Global slumps are brought about by below par economic performance by a major currency, or currencies and the effect was  described by Alvin Harvey Hanson, (a Keynesian Professor of Economics at Harvard University 1887 to 1975), as, "Secular Stagnation."  Secular, is an economic term , as well as having religious connotations, and is economically defined as, "A fluctuation or trend, occurring or persisting over an indefinitely long period;" which would be exampled by The ‘Hanson’  trend recognised in 21st century terms as, “world economies subjected to prolonged periods of substandard economic performance, punctuated by growth achieved by political injections of monetary and fiscal stimulus.” 

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Hanson's  'Perma Slump'  was started by the Secular Stagnation of the 1930's, and ended in most countries, by the arms drive to defeat Germany and Japan in the second world war between 1939 and 1945.  In 2019 the major fiscal stimulous, large enough to trigger Global growth would be a simultaneous trigger through the worlds economies.  Adapting the UK to meet a 2 degrees C rise in global temperatures needs a move from London centric population distribution with its necessary infrastructure changes, freight and passenger movement to be sustainable with those infrastructure changes, and to hardwire manufacture and recycling into efficient conjoined enterprises,  with minimal CO2 emissions; and eliminate atmospheric and terrestrial pollution.

 

 There are examples of Freight and Passenger Adaption on the Dover/Calais page, the construct of these would follow the IPCC defined Adaption below, which in turn mirrors the ambitions of the Global Commission on Adaption led by Bill Gates, Ban ki moon and Kristalina Georgieva.  Adaption isn't an alternative to Mitigation, its a partner, without which climate change is the threat we fear.

 

Adaption is basically changing the physical characteristics of the terrestrial areas of the UK, to meet the challenges, (but also reap the benefits), wrought by the advance in global temperature by 2 degrees C.  These can be small adjustments, undertaken by individuals, and, or local communities, but to be effective they need political direction and a National plan.  This cannot be successfully undertaken by an EU which controls the sovereign powers of its member states, in fact this is not just an opinion of this blog, but a requirement of the IPCC advice on major Adaptive change.

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The IPCC defines adaptation as the, “adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing environment.  Adaptation to climate change refers to adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.  Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation."

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Paramount to the major adaptive processes are the last four words of the definition, "autonomous and planned adaption." Autonomous being defined as; "A State, or Nation, having the freedom to govern itself or control its own affairs;" and, "Planned", as an overall planned  'Adaption' of that autonomous State, or Nation.  It is easy to see why this is a requirement of Adaption, even looking at a small area of the terrestrial globe, which the EU occupies.  The environmental differences between one state and another are immense, as are the economic will and capability of undertaking the changes necessary to replace fossil fuels and maintain global temperatures within the bounds of 2 degrees C.  The IPCC's division of anticipatory and reactive adaption is simply a recognition of work we can undertake, based on either prediction of how warming will effect our surroundings, or a problem we have allowed to develop because of past inaction.  Anticipatory adaption would be the building of a new Thames barrier to prevent flooding of the city and surrounds of London, based on the prediction of sea level rises.  The Adaption Blog describes how this can be linked to heavy goods movement which would not be fossil fuel dependent, but have environmental benefits as well. 

 

Reactive adaption is addressing the here and now, Governments need to act with urgency, while at the same time observing the criteria of actions which MODERATES THE HARM while EXPLOITING THE BENIFICIAL OPPORTUNITIES.  This is the Autonomous Government planning and financing a strategy, which will obviate the climate and health threat of atmospheric pollution, while replacing the threat with a system which does not, overall, penalise the population.  i.e. Do it better and cheaper.  Let's look at the problem highlighted at the top of this page.